This summer's Fraser sockeye run could be "the largest return since 1913," according to the Fraser River Panel.
In a regulatory announcement published on August 24 on the website of the Pacific Salmon Commission, the panel reported:
Test fishing catches of sockeye have continued to been strong in the marine approach routes over the past several days. These catches along with other assessment data have caused run size estimates for Fraser sockeye to increase. At the meeting today, the Panel approved increasing the run sizes for several Fraser River sockeye runs and adopting the following estimates of their 50% marine migration timing through Area 20:
Early Summer-run sockeye increased from 2,900,000 fish to 3,200,000 fish (August 7 marine timing);
Summer-run sockeye increased from 4,000,000 fish to 4,500,000 fish, (August 13 marine timing);
Harrison sockeye increased from 900,000 fish to 1,000,000 fish (August 8 marine timing);
Late Shuswap/Weaver sockeye increased from 11,000,000 fish to 16,000,000 fish (August 19 marine timing);
and the forecast of 241,000 fish from the Birkenhead stock-group.
The panel concluded: "Current run size assessments suggest that the total Fraser sockeye return this season is slightly over 25,000,000 fish (including 105,000 Early Stuart sockeye), which is the largest return since 1913."
The Hells Gate slide in 1913 blocked the Fraser Canyon and nearly destroyed the river's sockeye runs.
The panel also noted that the Fraser discharge at Hope is 24 percent lower than average for August 24, and the river's temperature at Qualark Creek is 17.6ºC, 0.5ºC above the average for this date.
Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.
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realisticman
1 year ago
Screwing with Mother Nature
The blame for this is squarely on those bloody Fish Farms! Right?
Skywalker
1 year ago
I think it was...
...all those closures which prevented fishers from making a living. I guess their sacrifice was the making of a renewed fishery. Maybe that's the trade off that must be made?..Fish farms or a vibrant healthy fishery.
doggone
1 year ago
So we are to trust this?
Biology 101 mentioned "Boom and Crash" as normal behaviour for natural species. Since the runs have crashed in the last few years - and now we have a Boom - everything is now just fine?
I'll give my head a shake for you.
If the Adams run makes it home and spawns I will eat my words.
Illahie
1 year ago
Hopefully the tide has turned
Sockeye survival has a lot to do with climate. Sockeye populations did very well from the 1940's to the mid 1970s as the worlds climate cooled. From the late 70's until recently, the world has warmed, and Sockeye stocks have suffered.
Recently the world has started to cool quite dramatically. This should be good for Sockeye stocks in the future. I hope that Sockeye benefit, because the rest of us will suffer from a cooling climate.
crankypants
1 year ago
Now watch
Now watch all the fish farm proponents begin to spew their usual line of bullcrap.
One good run every ten or twenty years is not definitive of any point of view. BUt you know they will spin it for all they're worth.
morechatter
1 year ago
Gone Fishing
I think it is simply amazing especially when it was only last year the sockeye were said to be doomed. What ever has made the difference it sure would be handy if someone was in tune with mother nature to get at her secrets as nature appears to have a mind of her own. It is probably as simple as the restricting of fishing but next years catch will be a better indicatator because everyones gone fishing this year.
DPL
1 year ago
One wonders if the experts
One wonders if the experts simply flip a coin to decide just how large or small a run is going to be each year.
realisticman
1 year ago
morechatter
Just remember this story next time some doom-lover tries to convince you that the world is about to end - for one reason or another.
Sask Resident
1 year ago
Climate Change?
I blame the boom in sockeye numbers squarely on climate change. The warmer waters in the northern Pacific have increased biologic productivity resulting in increased growth and survival of the sockeye. Thus I can see a great need to try to halt climate change so we will not have any more large salmon runs.
If you don't believe me, ask Suzuki!
Skywalker
1 year ago
Sask Resident
Maybe after few more years of flooding you will be able to fish for sockeye right off the porch. We can then chalk that up to global warming.
G West
1 year ago
I'm with DPL
Given the 'quality' of predictions for Fraser sockeye runs made over the past 5 - 10 years I suspect the notion that this year's sockeye production will rival historic norms is fanciful in the extreme.
Most gillnet fisherman I know are already about 4 years in the hole now - one relatively good year won't bring them back to anything like profitability - sadly, the fishery is done.
Like the dead cat bounce which often follows a sharp decline in a capitalist economy, one passably good year signifies almost nothing.
Except for the traditional practitioners of Panglossian positivism: For them, as always, such things provide the ongoing excuse to continue their ineffectual and errant ways at the expense of the environment and the social economy.
Illahie
1 year ago
sadly, the fishery is done
The best return in nearly a century, yet
"sadly, the fishery is done"
Me thinks that Garth is not involved in the industry.
G West
1 year ago
Hmm
Anyone who uses the arcane terminology 'Me thinks' - and uses it improperly - is probably blowing smoke...
Unless my interlocutor was around in 1913 I'd suggest it's a certainty.
Talk to a few commercial fishermen my friend, you'll soon recognize they aren't planning to do much more than 'try' to catch up with their overdue bills on the basis of this year's return...however rosy.
Let's call it a 'dead fish' bounce.
morechatter
1 year ago
Can't Make A Living Off Fishing
So doom and gloom it is as fishermen say they just can't make a living off fishing anymore as a good catch every century will not make the difference. Fishermen say after boats have been docked for 4 years most will agree there is little future in fishing for salmon in BC in the coming years.