The New Democratic Party's candidate would defeat Liberal cabinet minister Ida Chong if a byelection were held in Oak Bay-Gordon Head.

This according to a poll Gordon Pollard conducted for the newspaper Victoria Street Newz.

Chong is the target of a recall petition that The Tyee's Will McMartin argues just might succeed, forcing a byelection.

Out of 400 people surveyed by secret ballot for Pollard's poll, 47 percent said they would vote for the NDP's Jessica Van der Veen, while 23 percent said they would vote for Chong. Another 22 percent said they would support a yet-to-be-named B.C. Conservative Party candidate, while eight percent said they would vote for the Green Party's Steven Johns, who also ran in 2009.

The question Pollard asked was, “If a provincial election were being held today, which candidate would you vote for in the Oak Bay-Gordon Head constituency?”

An article published in the Street Newz said Pollard has previously conducted seven polls during B.C. and federal elections. “All seven accurately predicted the election results,” it said. During the 2009 election, for example, he predicted the vote totals for NDP winners Carole James and Rob Fleming within half a percentage point.

Andrew MacLeod is The Tyee’s Legislative Bureau Chief in Victoria. Reach him here.