The Hook

Luke

What I read is this ---

Mustel was giving the BC Liberals a 18 point lead in the spring,now it is a dead heat!

It also means --Like I was telling everyone,The Ipsos Reid poll was useless propoganda,bunk,not worth the paper it is written on.
Great NDP numbers,were still 6 months from a election,we haven`t started our campaign yet.
I will also like to mention that Campbell has been in the largest,most expensive advertising campaign in BC history--Advertising on the radio,the web,advertising in every little town,every big town,every newspaper,billboards,every television station!

100 million dollars in ads since june of this year and Mustel calls it a statistical tie and just how many NDP ads have been run?
Just wait until everyone gets their next hydro bills!
na na na na hey hey hey your gone

18 point lead from Mustel/vanquished---Arrogance,corruption,lies,mean spirited goverment,Gordon Campbell A PROVEN LIAR

THE LEVEE HAS BROKE, PEOPLE HATE GORDON CAMPBELL
To have a leader after 7 1/2 years to be hated,you can`t turn that around--Wanna bet?

"It's the ECONOMY, Stupid" ...

... as Bill Clinton is known for fondly saying.

Another important finding from Mustel:

While Mustel did not ask who is most capable, the relevant ARS and Ipsos question certainly shed more light on that matter:

Angus Reid Strategies:

"Who can manage the provincial economy effectively?"

Campbell: 41%
James: 18%

Ipsos:

"Who would British Columbians trust more to deal with the BC economy in a time of economic downturn or uncertainty:"

Campbell: 56%
James: 34%

And that's a blowout of seemingly insurmountable proportions.

And that will be the "ballot box question" of May, 2009.

No it won`t be the question Luke

The question is--And the questions have been answered in people`s mind

Campbell is a proven liar

Campbell goverment is corrupt

Campbell`s ministers are up to their elbows in corruption charges

Campbell is arrogant,hated, the majority of all BCers dont like Campbell

80% of respondebts in the Angus Reid poll state that Campbell "Is not honest or trustworthy"
Campbell got whacked in the bi-elactions

Ladner got whacked in the Vancouver mayoral race,in 2 radio debates Ladner stated "Gordon Campbell is the politician he most admires"
The whole NPA got whacked

Corrigan`s team swept every position in Burnaby, how could this be?
Ipsos states that Campbell leads in the GVRD by 13 points!

na na na na hey hey hey Campbell`s gone!

Campbell

Campbell rode the good economy to get the numbers he's got. As the economy tumbles he'll wear it and his 56% will drop to the low 40's, ie, hard-core Liberals.

The election isn't today, it will be after a very long winter full of bad economic news.

I still think he'll win anyway for the same reason I think Hitler's gransdon would win an election here, but it won't be because people have confidence in his skills.

Issues of concern

Mustel reports an interesting trend in the issues people are concerned about. In spring 2005 the top issue of concern for respondents was healthcare, at 33%. The economy was of concern to only 10%. Currently, healthcare is top of mind for 13%, while the economy is at 40%. Horse race numbers may appear similar to 2005 going into the gate, but this race will be on a mud track rather than dry. Can the NDP prevail under those conditions?

Wrong diagnosis

Since the economy is the main concern shouldn`t Gordon Campbell be pulling away?

People are concerned about the economy,could people of BC be waking up to the fact that Campbell was and is SMOKE and MIRRORS.
All the warnings from the NDP-All the warnings from the blogisphere--All the other warnings from people about what could happen and now is happening!

People are waking up to the fact that they have been sold a bill of goods,they have been had,conned,lied too.

Truth be known that small town BC has been in a full blown recession for years,hundreds of towns that Campbell let die,Campbell didn`t even try to save these towns!
Now the big towns are getting hit and it has only just started, so now that people`s saving are toast,jobs are vanishing and people will keep getting reminded of the obscene pay raises(we have to attract the best,we must compete)
Land giveaways,higher hydro rates,user fees.
And the whole time Campbell and his cronies will keep telling everyone about how low their taxes are,how they have more money in their pockets,and leak after leak of more and more money spent to pander to the rich for the 2 week party.

News about Translink car levies coming up,road tolls,congestion charges and now road closures for 2010 games and olympic traffic only lanes all over BC

People are going to be getting REALLY ANGRY--I MEAN REALLY REALLY ANGRY--Meanwhile Campbell will keep putting his face on your TV screen,your newspaper,your radio station,the more people see,hear or smell him the angrier people will get.

prediction NDP 50+ seats --Liberals 35-seats

Cheers

You can bet

Campbell and his finance minister, along with Kevin Falcon (Liberal leader in waiting?), will be spinning out the lies and promises so fast between now and the election. We will never know the truth about BC finances until they are voted out of Victoria. Sure, no deficit here, now go and vote for us. LIARS.

Meanwhile, they are fast tracking closures of long term care homes and hospitals, and rewarding contracts to his pals that will cost the publice purse a fortune to break.

El Gordo will win again

The fact is the NDP only can win in BC if there are two right wing parties....The Greens are right wing but many actually think they are left wing. People tend to think being strong on the Environment makes a party 'left'.

It also looks like a vote for the Greens will be a vote for Campbell as they will split the vote and allow Gordo to win. Very unfortunate really.

But hopefully the NDP get a better leader after next May as Carole does not cut it and I have been a lifelong NDP/CCF supporter...

She comes across 'poor' and saying empty ridings must be filled by females has turned off many of my fellow NDP friends as well....

Your wrong socialist dan

There is a emerging party of the right

Wilf Hanni(the Conservative party) and by the way they got over 5% of the vote in the bi-elections. The green party has been around for a long time but in may they will only get 5% to 6% of vote. So there you have it!

In may the Liberals will lose as many votes on the right as will the NDP will lose on the left, and with another 5% of Liberal voters staying home you will have a large NDP majority!

Your theory on how everyone will be turned off by the NDP`s affirmative is wrong as well.

No NDPer is going to switch to the Liberals because of who is running,female or male---The 2 bi-elections proved that with a landslide win for Jenn Mcginn and Mr. Spencer.

Look down south,there is a black president,who woulda thunk that even 4 years ago!

People have gotten tired of the old white boys club in politics, people want change,BCers want change.

I am getting a little tired of a defeatest attitude from you Dan and Frank.

Remember Mustel had the Liberals up by 18 points 6 months ago, I never believed that number to be true,totally skewed to the BC Liberals, Remember in 2005 Campbell won by 4 points!

So keeping in mind that the Mustel poll is still skewed towards Campbell, that means that the only accurate poll is the Angus Reid poll!
here is the link

http://www.angus-reid.com/uppdf/2008.11.15_BCPolitics_1.pdf

here is one more accurate poll

The world`s most accurate pollster

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_546.html

The economy will decide

The tax cuts proposed will definitely have some effect on the opinions of B.C., if not their actual wallets. The anger of the carbon tax subsides with each $0.88 posting at Esso, and the Deputy Minister raises are somewhat fading. Somewhat.

At the moment the NDP have failed to identify exactly what it is that separates them from the Liberals except more spending, and axing the tax and implementing a costlier cap and trade system. We don't need any of that noise.

Can't stand either of them

I Voted for the Liberals to get rid of the lying corrupt NDP and now they just as bad or worse. So who do you vote for now ??? Well in the coming election I'm voting NDP not because their the better party but because I want to buy a house and they are more likely than the liberals to further destroy the economy a make housing more affordable

That's cute but...

House buying doesn't work that way.

Sure it does Raphael

Housing prices follow the state of the economy in an economic downturn prices drop as they are already. As things worsen they will drop still more and if you have the ability to buy at the bottom of the market life is good. So there is a benefit to deflationary pressure on the economy. prices go down, If only Glen Clark would make a comeback

Atomicrayco

If the market tumbles the creditors aren't likely to loan you the money you need to buy that house. The economy has to be very good, like it was a year ago, in order for risky loans to be made to people of middling incomes in a hot market. If the housing market dumps the prices may be low, but who wants to loan money to people when cash is king in a recession?

RE: The economy will decide

Great post I totally agree with you. There is very little difference between the NDP and Liberals . I feel much of the anger against the Liberals is directed a Campbell is he resigns that could put life back into his party. Your right about the carbon tax it will be forgotten if gas prices stay low .
Oh ya I don't need a loan so my house purchasing theory holds water.

Atomicrayco

Do you recommend buying shortly after the NDP is re-elected or would you suggest waiting a couple of years for the NDP to completely scare off business and jobs and the economy to dive deeply into the tank?

egmont rapids 13 hours ago

egmont rapids
13 hours ago wrote:I am getting a little tired of a defeatest attitude from you Dan and Frank.

Wilf Hanni(the Conservative party) and by the way they got over 5% of the vote in the bi-elections. The green party has been around for a long time but in may they will only get 5% to 6% of vote. So there you have it!
------
Defeatist attitude? I just joined here last week and maybe made 3 posts..

When Barrett won there were arguably 4 major parties running in BC (NDP, Libs, Cons and SC) the vote was split and Barrett won. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_1972

When Harcourt won the newly founded Liberals under Gordon Wilson took over 33% of vote and the SC (now BC Liberals) won just over 24% http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_1991 so that is a heck of a lot more than the 4-5 % the conservatives got in a By election, in a real election the cons will get even less.

In 96 the 'Reform and Liberal democratic party' took 15% between them and El Gordo did get more votes than Clark but the Reform split was enough for the NDP to sneak up and 'win'.

I have been around a long time and the NDP as much as I want them to win probably will not. It will be closer than last time but El Gordo will prevail unfortunately. People especially the 50+ and working non union males will head for El Gordo.

egmont rapids also wrote: No NDPer is going to switch to the Liberals because of who is running,female or male---The 2 bi-elections proved that with a landslide win for Jenn Mcginn and Mr. Spencer.

Your theory on how everyone will be turned off by the NDP`s affirmative is wrong as well.
------------

When was the last time a sitting government in BC won a By Election? Claude Richmond did many years ago but it was a while before that and none since.

Actually I know many males ticked off by that affirmative action who do not plan on voting next time..

It is very undemocratic to appoint people to run based on their sex, the members of the local riding association should decide who runs.

I also did not say 'everyone' so do not misquote me please.

Socialist Dan

When was a bi-election ever run in the midst of a non-stop 100 million dollar ad campaign,followed up by a a provincial wide dramatic speech from the premier disguised as a emergency news breif?

With promised tax cuts and more fluffy giveaways.
And running against two so-called Liberals superstars! And who were the NDPers,two rookies,two young inexperienced rookies!

Dan I will also remind you that this site is the best REAL news source site in the province and there are Gordon Campbell media that live on this site!