A new Angus Reid Strategies poll has the Liberals and the New Democratic Party in a virtual tie in the May 12 B.C. election race.
The poll, commissioned by CTV and the Globe and Mail, reports the following results:
Liberals, 44 per cent; NDP 42 per cent; Green party, 10 per cent; B.C. Conservative party, two per cent; undecided, two per cent.
No party moved more than three percentage points from the previous Reid poll, which showed the Liberals with a three-point lead. That poll was released April 29, based on interviews conducted online between April 24 and 26.
Today’s poll is based on 1,013 online interviews conducted Tuesday and Wednesday. As such, it is the first poll to be conducted entirely after Sunday’s televised leaders debate.
CTV is reporting that the debate appears to have been “the kiss of death” for Premier Gordon Campbell’s image, with 51 per cent of respondents saying their opinion of him dropped after watching the debate.
Campbell was widely seen in media reports as having lost the debate and has been attacked for patronizing NDP leader Carole James.
Fifty-eight of those polled said Campbell is patronizing, CTV reported.
Reid states a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20 for this poll. However, other pollsters and polling experts maintain that, for methodological reasons, it is not proper to quote a margin of error for online polls.
Tom Barrett reports for The Tyee.
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Moonbug
3 years ago
I am looking forward to
I am looking forward to seeing the Mustel name dragged through the mud after this, and the Liberal shill Global too.
frenchy mcswede
3 years ago
This poll is even better
than it looks for the ndp, for it shows carol james' approval rating now tied with the premier's. This means james has the positive momentum, campbell's the negative. As one pundit put it people are warming up to james. The over-exposed premier, however, together with his downright CREEPY, fireside style chats are having the opposite effect...I have heard the premier described as creepy in the debate as well. Should'a kept that boy in the bubble....
This ONLINE poll is also held as being more accurate than the telephone landline polls done because it asked, "based on the candidates in your riding, who would you vote for?" (landlines are also held to reflect an older demographic)
On another note, I just went to my advanced polling station and voted. Contrary to popular opinion, you do not have to be out of town on voting day, sick, or disabled, you just need the yellow voting card, confirmed voting list voters get from canada post -that's the law. Advance voting is way up this time, another good sign for the ndp. I believe you can vote in advance before sunday...
secret cove
3 years ago
Carole James has.........
The big Momentum,Carole is leading in the interior,leading big time on the island....
And a toss-up in the lower mainland.....
Well Kennedy Stewart,I am waiting for your next (re-jiggered) prediction? Well.....
Cheers-Eyes Wide Open
brg61
3 years ago
The Angus-Reid poll...
was the closest to the final results of the
federal election. The same on-line survey
method was used in that national poll.
Factoring in a margin for error, I think
the Angus-Reid poll is more accurate than
Mustel's survey. This election is proving
very similar to 2005 and was never the
BCliberal sure thing that Keith Baldrey
and the Vancouver sun et al want to see.
Campbell made a serious mistake with his
arrogant quip in the debate that suggested
governing is a big job that Carole James
may not understand. He patronized her AND
thousands of women who hear the same dis-
missive tone in the workplace.
This election isn't over. It will be won
by the party that gets their identified
supporters to the polls in about ten close
electoral districts.
WHAT
3 years ago
Another thing on VOTING
if you don't have proof of your current residence (studuent! Others). An bill in your name to your new address or you can get a friend who lives in the riding to vouche for you...check it out for yourselves google Elections BC.
I voted yesterday, no lines, in and out in 5 minutes. Yah I was a little eager...and suggest that we continue expanding the concept of being able to vote on multiple days, gets more voters out...By the way there is an increase in the number of people voting early, I think the article is at cbcbc.com. Been increasing since before 2005...
Unfortunately there are a number of unemployed workers. They have time to vote! Create some sustainable energy jobs, we need the power, california needs it, keep it public and we can create a future for our kids...
SharingIsGood
3 years ago
other issues too, brg61
It wasn't just the arrogant quip.
Campbell also failed to answer the BC Rail question which all TV stations and Newspapers are avoiding.
Campbell was also quite clearly caught in his manipulative message about getting tough on crime while cutting the budget for the the Ministries that will best ameliorate the problems associated with crime.
Almost all viewers could see through the line about the opposition not supporting a single item that was buried within the entire Liberal budget. The Liberals did not put the budget out in piecemeal fashion. Had the opposition voted for the budget, Campbell would have then said, "Well, you agreed with me, what'a the problem you dirty flip flopper." He is the worst of premiers. I feel unclean when I listen to him.
Carole's message was quite clear: children, students, working people, small business and the environment are going to be put ahead of giving the province away to multinational corporations and greedy fat cats.
SharingIsGood
3 years ago
cbc article
article about NAFTA ensuring our rivers may be gone to the Americans for good:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/bcvotes2009/realitycheck/2009/04/is_run_of_the_river_running_aw_1.html
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
And .....
....how many Tyee posters are part of the Angus Reid online panel. :)
From the internal Angus Reid, volunteer membership, BC poll, online-panel survey from yesterday:
Anybody here willing to talk the talk and then walk the walk by placing their own money on the line by wagering that these figures are actually correct? :D
Frank
3 years ago
Luke
Go bet with WIlf, he's aching to make a deal too.
Frank
3 years ago
Walk the walk
Here's a thought, go donate your extra money to kids in need, being as you vote against them while claiming you feel bad.
SharingIsGood
3 years ago
Frank
You are a genius! I am never without a chuckle when I read your posts.
Frank
3 years ago
Sharing
Thanks, but Luke is just a little nervous and a lot pissed off and his bet is his way of saying "you can all go f**k yourselves".
RickW
3 years ago
SIG
U2, huh?
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Frank...
Damn, you are good tonight. :D
You must sure make yourself proud with your commentary.
After reading that vitriol it almost makes me wonder why I even bother financially donating (and even volunteering for Thanksgiving every few years) to the Union Gospel Mission in Vancouver.
But of course, people posting here with monikers such as "Sharing is Good" are are more likely to want to "share" what someone else "has" than what "they" personally "have".
I've seen folk like that all of my life. The so-called "G West" crowd. Good on ya. ;)
G West
3 years ago
Did you mean this kind of thing Luke?
http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/003848.html
Further, I find your remark personally insulting and I've flagged it as offensive.
Frank
3 years ago
Luke
That's it buddy, let it out. Your blood pressure will thank you.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Soft Underbellies :)
g west:
Frank:
We all know what will happen on Tuesday... but sheesh ... ain't this kind of pre-election commentary a little thin-skinned???? :D
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
Questionable Methodology indeed
I cannot see how this kind of online polling can be scientific as the respondents are not picked at random. We will find who is right, Angus Reid or all the other polling agencies, on Tuesday.
Garth, you insult people all the time. Get over it.
I still predict a comfortable majority for Premier Campbell in Tuesday.
Frank
3 years ago
Angus Reid
Was the best during the 2008 federal election. Sure they could be wrong this time but no moreso than any other pollster.
Frank
3 years ago
You're a winner
"Garth, you insult people all the time. Get over it."
I vote this as most hypocritical comment of the year. Why if we turn the way-back machine to last week we'd find that this fine fellow clicked the offensive button on DPL for daring to say "King Gordo" and me for being my usual warm and fuzzy self.
Frank
3 years ago
Luke
" ain't this kind of pre-election commentary a little thin-skinned?"
Hey, you're the guy that came to the party with no beer and a big chip on his shoulder demanding a scrap.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Frank...
Posted in another thread but still apropos here. ;)
I know that you are angling for a political strategist career... but a lesson in politics 101 might be in order: :D
Angus Reid Strategies:
Saskatchewan (Federal Election)
Con: 40%
NDP: 35%
http://www.newstalk650.com/files/news-talk-angus-reid-federal-election-poll-oct-10.pdf
Damn that's close with a 5% spread!
Actual Federal Election Result:
Con: 54%
NDP: 26%
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2008/#
Oooppppsss... a 28% spread!
I understand how these online panels work and man they can really be outta whack. ;)
Wilfred Laurier
3 years ago
Hmmm
Before I again let you have the last word, Frank, I must say that you seem awfully close to the editor of this site.
Big surprise there, eh?
Campbell is going to win. None of you are brave enough to take my bet because you know you going to lose.
Have the last word now, Frank. I know you can't resist as much as your party can't win.
G West
3 years ago
Thin skinned?
Not really.
You'd like to have this:
I've seen folk like that all of my life. The so-called "G West" crowd.
Said about you?
I find it 'personal' and offensive and I flagged it as such.
Now, could we discuss the use of scurrilous tactics by the Van Dongen crowd...seems to me there's some pretty decent evidence of YOUR side in this little bun toss using that kind of behavior with impunity.
Maybe you also forgot how Garry Farrell Collins and Dave Basi were going to rip a certain mayor a 'new asshole'...perhaps we could discuss that too.
G West
3 years ago
WilFRED
AND, just in case Frank's gone for the evening, I flagged your comment about Frank as personal and offensive too.
And, funny thing, I bet David Beers will agree with that assessment as well.
G'Night Wilf!
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Don't Worry... Be Happy...
El Gordo will be out by 2013. The likely new Lib candidate/premier will be Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts.
Ya know, the one that won the Surrey mayoralty by a 86% margin last November?
Has a very good reputation with the centre-left crowd.
A helluva vote getter. ;)
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
g west....
Sensitive fella are ya? :D
G West
3 years ago
By the way Luke
What happened to luke skywalker redux?
Short career - or did you just forget your pass word?
Cheers luke...not sensitive at all...
WHAT
3 years ago
Play nice,,,,
Wilfred,
Polls don't count anymore, is that because they are not in your favour. Take a walk outside the castle and ask the people a couple of questions or two...more people are voting earlier these days, recent political events in the US started this wave of change...Trickled UP to BC.
I thought you, didn't have enough time to spend blogging! You started today at 1:30pm. Do you get paid to blog?? A legitimate question.
WHAT
3 years ago
Luke
You spend a lot of time on a so-called leftist blog....Care to explain the hostility. At the end of the day we all live in BC together. You offer only criticisms, times aren't so good anymore are they. If times were,,,you probably wouldn't be blogging. A legitimate question: Do you get paid to do this?? Volunteer?....Hobby?...
WHAT
3 years ago
the canucks lost tonight
More focus on the election tomorrow. People aren't exactly in a greatest of moods at the moment. They'll be looking for answers, maybe that will spread to the politcal arena. Good timing for the polls to come out, and more headline news tomorrow. The anticipation....brace yourselves.....you know there has to be something...DARE you all! not to blog tomorrow...no news no need to blog.
RossK
3 years ago
Regardless the discrepancies in the party preference...
....numbers, the trends are clearly going in Ms. James direction. And while some may still be questioning the early Dipper strategy to go negative, it would appear that the LINO's attempts to 'define' James have pretty much failed...Much of the puffed-up punditry may have missed that, but I would be willing to take pretty short odds that BOTH sides' War Rooms have not.....
.
hansolo
3 years ago
Mustel Poll
moonbug the Mustel firm I read is
owned by the spouse of a liberal candidate
and used controlled samples(to get higher
liberal numbers i guess) and was partly
done before the debate and partly after
where as the Reid poll was all done after
I don't put much faith in polls put trust
the reid poll more due to it's apparent
non-bias and it's larger size.
brg61
3 years ago
Dainne Watts....
Luke Skywalker, your tone is so partisan.
You assume that EVERYONE posting at this
site is as narrow minded as you are.
I agree with you that Mayor Watts could
lead the BCliberal party if Campbell
steps down. My vote would have been among
the 85% she won if I lived in Surrey.
After the 2005 election I was hopeful
Campbell would decide two terms was enough
and that Carole Taylor would lead the
liberals in this election. There are good
people in all political partties worthy
of my vote. Gordon Campbell isn't one of
them.
I resent being labeled as socialist by
scare-mongers on the right. I, like most
people want moderate leadership that is
not beholden to their donors or limited
by dogma.
Freddy Hutter
3 years ago
seat projection update
6 of 7 seat projection models have updated today: Avg indicates 56-29 Liberal victory as of May 7th. Momentum projects to a 60-25 Campbell Majority on Tuesday.
tracking chart: www.trendlines.ca/electbc.htm
jericho beach
3 years ago
trendlines
Taking into account either the Reid or Muster polls showing a close popular vote it would appear that if one were to believe in the Trendlines BC Legislature seat projection of Liberals 60 - New Democrats 25 then one would have reason enough to vote for STV, even if you were Bill Tieleman.
secret cove
3 years ago
Your all missing the 500lb gorilla in the room...
Wilf Hanni is polling 7% in Kamloops and the southern interior.......
Game set match..........
Polling in the fraser (bible belt)Valley...
The Liberals are down 10 percentage votes in the bible belt.........
Carry that into close ridings and......
Hello Premier james
kl
3 years ago
Where's the spotlight?
So this morning The Province buries deep in one of their stories that Campbell threw a loony at a strking paramedic. It seems Campbell is going down the same road as Ralph Klein. This should be front and centre in all the media.
G West
3 years ago
Excellent point kl
Let's make sure the word gets around that King Ralph has a counterpart in King Gordo.
kl
3 years ago
Campbell is unravelling
It seems to be if you watched Campbell's performance in the debate, his interview with Charlie Smith of the Georgia Straight, and this recent loonie throwing episode that maybe Campbell knows the jig is up and that all this corruption BS, even if he wins, will finally be his downfall.
Hopefully the defence team at the BC rail trial will be successful in getting all of Cambpell's emails. The light really needs to be shone on this scandal.
In some ways I'd like to see Campbell get another term because I think it would finally spell the end of the Liberal party as we know it. These guys just can't help but help themselves and their friends to the taxpayer dime and in four years I think we'll see the end of BC's patience with these crooks.
G West
3 years ago
Naw!
Wouldn't matter kl - Gordo loses, they'll just create another puppet to take their orders - that's the way BC politics has always worked - it doesn't matter what they call it: Liberal, SocRed, Reform or Conservative.
There will always be a party of the Neanderthal right in this province.
I do think Campbell has felt the cold wind of public opprobrium blowing in his direction from all over the province this election – and, like uppity women and other people who speak their minds – he doesn’t much like it…..
WHAT
3 years ago
kl
I agree with you...
A minority gov will also bring out the corruption that has been hidden so either way the corruption will come out...old supporters will turn their backs and start releasing the truth...The truth will surface,,I would get out before it does..plain and simple...especially in light of fact that we are in a close race... much closer at this point then the last two elections...People who once voted green are realizing their intentions were good, but their vote got no say and corruption resulted...how do you think they will vote this time to make their vote count...STV would definitely allow the greens to get more support in the next election, but for this one it seems to be a two sided election...
Nothing is happening in forestry at the moment, other than shipping out raw logs in containers from off the coast, too far for our eyes to see....all the local loggers are not working!!!what does that say...and how about the promised investment in value added wood products,,,more locally made and used wood products would be nice,,,you might find that people are willing to work for a little less to make their jobs sustainable and not have to worry about losing their houses etc...
How about sustainable renewable energy,,,the US is now thinking about it more seriously...oil seems to be on it's way out shortly, what will the rich barons do if they can't sell oil as we no longer need it, because each and every one of us, can get the technology to make our own...The Barons may have to get real jobs...I like our oceans oil free, thank you...Bottom line it takes money to invest in oil, but it only takes a little to invest in renewable energy resources,,each of our home can be energy efficient in the near future, and our cars too. Imagine what losses the oil companies will start to see.....Now I know why they are scared..
Why does our premier have body guards, RCMP at that....and why weren't our local businesses given preference for the security contracts...I thought we were supposed to reap the benefits of the olympics....(BC companies) not companies just recently set up in BC with their head offices in the US and other countries....come on...
I never trust educated people who can't bring the facts to support their claims, CEO's , executives, anyone....and most importantly politicians who won't engage in debates and answer questions honestly with fact..