It was just seven years ago that the Green Party, after taking 12.4 per cent of the popular vote in the 2001 general election, seemed to be soaring to hitherto unimagined heights in British Columbia politics.
Of course, that performance was aided by the disappearance of the once-mighty Social Credit party and the near-extinction of the governing New Democratic Party, events which left a sizeable vacuum in the province's political firmament. And, despite doing much better than anyone expected, the Greens still fell well short of actually electing anyone to the legislative assembly.
The party seemed to be on an upward trajectory, however. Surely it was just a matter of time before the first Green MLA had a seat in the legislature?
Well, no. And tonight's performance by party leader Jane Sterk, who finished a distant third in the Vancouver-Fairview by-election, should give pause to those who think the Greens can ever win a provincial election. Forget the upward trajectory; the party now seems not only to have stalled, but is falling back to earth.
With ballots still being counted, Sterk seemed destined to finish with no better than an unimpressive 7.5 per cent in Fairview this evening. And in the concomitant by-election held in Vancouver-Burrard, Green hopeful Drina Read fared even worse, with about 5.2 per cent.
Sterk's loss is the fifth consecutive setback for a Green leader in a provincial by-election. Former leader Stuart Parker lost three such bids — in Vancouver-Quilchena, Surrey-White Rock and Parksville-Qualicum in 1994, 1997 and 1998 respectively — while Adriane Carr was embarrassed in Surrey-Panorama Ridge in 2004.
Parker obtained 3.6 per cent of the vote in his first by-election, 4.5 per cent in the second, and 1.7 per cent in the third. Carr was held to 8.4 per cent.
A contributing factor to these uninspiring performances surely must be that the Green leaders, with the exception of Parker in 1994, traveled far from home to make their by-election appearances.
A Vancouver resident, Parker was out of his depth in seeking to represent south Surrey and White Rock in 1997, and Parksville and other Vancouver Island communities in 1998. Sunshine Coast resident Carr looked similarly mis-placed four years ago in Surrey-Panorama Ridge.
Sterk, who lives in Esquimalt and sits on the local municipal council, was understandably unable to convince Vancouver-Fairview voters that she understood their concerns.
After reaching their historic high in 2001, the Greens fell to just 9.2 per cent province-wide in B.C.'s 2005 general election. That's pretty close to the Green Party's share in B.C. in the most-recent federal general election, 9.4 per cent.
For the foreseeable future, then, the Greens look like any other fringe party, and seem destined to remained mire in single digits in terms of popular support.
Will McMartin reports for The Tyee.
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de Falla
3 years ago
Green vote dropped from 8.9% in 05
The numbers are interesting as well in that the NDP attracted almost exactly the same percentage of the vote while both the Liberals and Greens lost share [even though it was the GP leader putting her political capital on the line]. The Conservatives got almost 4%, up from virtually nothing in 05 general election.
I understand that the urban bicycle riding/bus taking voter wasn't expected to respond to the anti-carbon tax message carried by the NDP. It will be interesting to learn in the post election analysis why the Green's didn't do better.
NicS
3 years ago
Only 15% of Eligible Voters Voted
Those are the rough numbers and with such a low turnout, we can postulate almost anything and prove almost nothing. Bottom line, NDP won 2 byelections, great for momentum and sure to be capitalized on. These 2 byelections will certainly have woken the sleeping giant of GC as well and I expect the giant to start playing rough and dirty if he still thinks he can hold on to his post as Premier.