A poll from Abacus Data suggests a 10-point lead for the New Democrats -– by far the closest result of any B.C. political poll taken since January.

The Abacus poll was released at around the same time as a Justason Market Intelligence poll that suggested a 22-point lead for the New Democrats.

The online Abacus poll results for decided and leaning voters were: BC Liberals 33, NDP 43, BC Conservatives nine, Greens 12, others three.

The Justason poll results were: Liberals 27, NDP 49, Conservatives 12, Greens 11, others one.

There are issues concerning both polls.

The Justason poll was conducted between April 15 and 23, so some of the interviews are two weeks old; the most recent ones are a week old. Justason's poll was based on a sample of 600 potential voters –- a considerably smaller sample than other B.C. election polls. (See table below.)

The Abacus poll, conducted for the Sun News Network, had a very large sample –- 1,042 –- and was conducted from Tuesday, April 23 to Friday, April 26. However, Abacus has no track record in polling for B.C. elections, so it is difficult to say how representative its sample may be.

Other pollsters are expected to weigh in over the coming week; their results may help create a more complete picture of public opinion during this election.

The Justason poll, which was undertaken on the company's own behalf, was conducted by a combination of telephone and online interviews. It states a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Abacus poll contains this statement: "Since the online survey was not a random, probability based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated. The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association prohibits statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates with regard to most online panels.

"The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 1,042 respondents using a probability sample is plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20."

For more on this issue, see this story.

Polling for B.C. election 2013 as of April 30, 2013

Company	Date	Lib	NDP	Cons	Green	Other	Method	Sample	+/-
Angus Reid	17-18 Jan	31	46	10	10	3	Online	802	3.5
Mustel	11-21 Jan	33	43	11	11	2	Phone	509	4.3
Justason	25 Jan - 1 Feb	26	48	12	11	3	Phone-online	600	4
Ekos	1-10 Feb	27.4	39	14.6	13.5	5.5	IVR*	687	3.7
Angus Reid	22-21 Feb	31	47	9	10	3	Online	803	3.5
Ipsos	8-12 Mar	32	51	9	7	1	Online	1,000	3.1
Angus Reid	18-19 Mar	28	48	11	11	2	Online	809	3.5
Insights West	26-31 Mar	28	45	10	15	2	Online	855	3.4
Ekos	3-10 Apr	27.3	39.3	13.4	16.2	3.8	IVR*	793	3.5
Angus Reid	12-13 Apr	28	45	12	13	3	Online	804	3.5
Ipsos	11-14 Apr	29	48	11	9	3	Online	800	3.5
Angus Reid	24-25 Apr	31	45	11	10	3	Online	812	3.5
Justason	15-23 Apr	27	49	12	11	1	Phone-online	600	4
Abacus	23-26 Apr	33	43	9	12	3	Online	1,042	3.1

*Interactive Voice Response

Note: The margins of error given here are those provided by the pollster. In some cases, the sampling error stated may refer to the overall sample, including undecided respondents; the margin of error for decided or decided and leaning respondents will be larger in those cases. For details, click the links in the chart for the methodology of each poll. For more about polling issues, see this story.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett's previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.